Ross Perot is back

Ross Perot just posted a new website, sharing his opinion on the financial state of the U.S. and what needs to be done to avoid significant economic (& dollar-value) decline. His "Charts" are worth checking out.

His plan is to strengthen the dollar with a prudent fiscal and monetary approach. By implementing his approach, we would see the price of oil drop, or at least moderate. This does not solve the peak-oil problem, nor climate change, but it is a major component in driving the price of gas down.

What effect does the falling dollar have on the price of oil?

With the price of a gallon of gasoline at about $4.50, since 2000 until the beginning of 2008, the falling value of the dollar accounts for nearly $1 of this price. In other words, it would be $3.50 if the dollar had kept the same value of the year 2000. If the dollar had actually strengthened by the same amount as it weakened, the price of gas would be nearly another dollar less, or almost $2.50. So, a question might be: "How do we strengthen the dollar?"

The two-page analysis. Sources for this analysis are: Decline of the dollar since the 1700s; Price of the Euro (Inverse value of the dollar); Price of Oil

Obama uses pages from 2005 Energy Independence Fund idea

According to Obama's website:

• Invest $150 Billion over 10 Years in Clean Energy: Obama will invest $150 billion over 10 years to advance the next generation of biofuels and fuel infrastructure, accelerate the commercialization of plug-in hybrids, promote development of commercial-scale renewable energy, invest in low-emissions coal plants, and begin the transition to a new digital electricity grid. A principal focus of this fund will be devoted to ensuring that technologies that are developed in the U.S. are rapidly commercialized in the U.S. and deployed around the globe.
• Clean Technologies Deployment Venture Capital Fund: Obama will create a Clean Technologies Venture Capital Fund to fill a critical gap in U.S. technology development. Obama will invest $10 billion per year into this fund for five years. The fund will partner with existing investment funds and our National Laboratories to ensure that promising technologies move beyond the lab and are commercialized in the U.S

Oil prices ready to drop?

Many opinions about this. We certainly have an oil bubble, and those who are speculating will be hurt most when oil drops. But a drop will likely be short-lived and not too severe (unless we start seeing large-country / world-wide depression - then all bets are off.) Short of that, for the long term (due to the many factors described in this blog - not the least of which is simple supply & demand), the price of oil will continue to rise. Another opinion: U.S. News article by James Pethokoukis.

Correlation between the falling dollar and rise in oil prices

What is the correlation between the falling dollar and rise in oil prices? One view.
An alternate view.And a third opinion.

"Learning From the Oil Shock"

Excellent Newsweek article (by Robert Samuelson) about learning from the oil shock. Balanced and insightful.

SAIC's Report on Peak Oil

Although they would not describe it as such, SAIC's "predictions" are, unfortunately, coming true.

Portland, Oregon's approach to Peak OIl

This comprehensive report-of-findings from Portland "Peak Oil Task Force" is an exceptional body of knowledge and piece of work. Well done!

"Green Gold Rush"

[1] A UN Environment Program (UNEP) study said more than 148 billion dollars of new funds were invested into the quest for cleaner energy last year. The massive demand for solar, wind and bio-fuel energy was being powered by prevailing climate change worries, growing support from world governments and rising crude oil prices, the UN agency said. Article, here.

[2] In other news.

[3] Stay up to speed, at Yahoo.

A little humor...

A “systems” way of thinking is required to solve our energy dependence problem, and build a sustainable future.

This quote from Peter Senge’s Book “The Fifth Discipline” should cause one pause (relative to how this country is going about “solving our ‘price’ problem”:

“Beware the symptomatic solution. Solutions that address only the symptoms of a problem, not the fundamental causes, tend to short-term benefits at best. In the long term, the problem resurfaces and there is increased pressure for symptomatic response. Meanwhile, the capacity for fundamental solutions can atrophy.”

Paraphrasing: Trying to address the high price of gas (the symptom) instead of dealing with the problem (home-grown alternatives / renewable energy technologies) is delaying the true days of reckoning: And in fact, decreasing our ability to solve this problem. (As has happened in the past 35 years.)

$4 a gallon? Really?

Bush's “plan” for renewables?

Spare change to start a Renewable Energy Technology Accelerator?

I wonder where one might find a spare $70 billion a year - to fund a Renewable Energy Technology Accelerator? Oh, here it is.

A Congressman speaks his mind on the unintended consequences of a recent bill

Energy Storage Technologies

Interesting links, from PostivEnergyOutput - about energy storage technologies.

New technologies: Compressed air cars!

Penalizing U.S. oil companies due to Chinese subsidizing oil?

Some countries are subsidizing gas prices for their citizens. The result? Higher demand. Which increases gas prices further. A few of the culprits.

Cleantech investments hit $2.2 billion in 2007

As gas prices surge, so do investments into clean energy technology.

How to kick-start a renewable energy technology accelerator

One might think that there are mechanisms in place to provide seed funding to an organization that could have a tremendous impact on our energy problems (which are NOW). Instead of having to "get in line" for an appropriations that "might get funded in 2010." In other news...

Supply & Demand facts

Please check out the demand growth in China, India, Russia and Canada: Especially from a percentage basis. This, coupled with [1] oil supply peaking, [2] the falling value of the dollar, and [3] U.S.'s energy dependence growing from 25% to 60% since 1973 provides the root cause of oil price spikes. Well, that and a total lack of funding and lack of an integrated energy policy, focused on energy independence. Leadership, anyone?

How to solve our energy problems.

Interesting perspective on how a renewable energy technology accelerator could move us more quickly to real solutions to our energy problems: The short version (15 Megs). The comprehensive version (70 Megs).

Time to socialize, er... nationalize, er.. take over the oil companies?

Here we go again! Only this time, look at the faces on Maxine's collaborators' faces when she... well... watch.

Is demand finally slowing?

A couple interesting articles:

[1] The average per-gallon price topped $4 in 11 states.

[2] People are finally cutting back.

My guess? Short term, prices will come down a bit (don't they always go up right before a 3-day weekend?). Long term, prices will increase dramatically. Unless there is a world-wide depression, in which case, all bets are off. Bottom line: Supply is decreasing. Peak oil is hitting countries, now:



That said, the fundamental supply is shrinking and demand is increasing. Alternatives to burning stuff for energy are the only thing that will get us through the coming decades. One person's perspective.

Peak Oil Impact On Airlines / Airports.

Airports Lose Passenger Flights As Peak Oil Starts To Bite.

Is there a relationship between the falling dollar and rise in oil prices?

Yes.

Greentech labor shortages.

What happens when tons of VC money goes into one particular industry (like the DotBomb)? Talent shortage.

Oil company gets into batteries!

Exxon Mobile strategically investing "windfall" profits wisely - into battery technology.

More electric car companies

Check out ZENN Motor Company and Dynasty Electric Car.

Pandering, redux

Both Hillary Clinton & John McCain appear to not understand the simple supply & demand relationship. Until addiction to oil is cured, expect more unrealistic and inconsistent promises.

$10 to $12 a gallon?

Export Land Model: Is it worse than the pessimists think?

Available oil (to importing countries) could reduce dramatically faster than originally thought.

Never thought I'd say this: Thank you, GM.

GM's efforts on an electric vehicle. GM's efforts on a fuel cell vehicle.

No all we need is to [1] increase wind farm capacity utilization from an average of 15% up to the "stated" 23%, or even more and [2] ensure The Grid can handle it.

Google & "Big Oil" Invest $115 million in Solar.

I will always remember the "Go" in Google!

Banks now investing in greentech!

Citigroup has pledged $50 billion to green initiatives over ten years, including $31 billion for clean technologies.

Move to electric vehicles

GM is moving to electric vehicles in a Big Way: A123 Systems, whose founder Ric Fulop said "Somebody lit a fire under [GM's] butt in 2006. I’ve never seen a large company move so fast and put so many resources behind something."

One of the reasons? All car-makers are being / will be pressured to increase fuel efficiency. Electric vehicles is one way to do this.

"Plug-in" calculator

This web-tool allows you to calculate your average gas use (gallons) and carbon footprint. Check it out!

Oil doubles in a year

Here's another hint that it might make sense to invest in commercializing renewable energy technology, right about now:

Electric vehicle a reality: now.

Responding to consumer demand, market trends and to position themselves for the future, General Motors, Ford, Tesla, Renault and dozens of other automobile companies are bringing plug-in hybrid vehicles to market. (Example: Tesla unveils (125 mph equivalent) production electric car!)

According to Oak Ridge National Laboratory, if plug-in hybrid cars account for 20% of new-car sales in the U.S. by 2020, up to 160 new power plants will be needed. This makes the current efforts to “turn down your air conditioner” pale in comparison to the impact of the move towards electric vehicles.

Just as shifting to corn-ethanol has produced an unintended consequence of no real carbon reduction and rising food costs, a shift to electric vehicles will dramatically reduce or even negate all current and future climate-change effort – without a corresponding substantive move toward renewable energy production.

Gas Tax "Holiday"?

Unbelievable! First, (some) politicians want to buy your vote by giving you back you own money (via the stimulus package). Then they want to do the exact opposite of what needs to be done to reduce our gas consumption (again, by trying to buy your vote) - by deleting Federal taxes on gasoline over the (pre-election) summer.

The reason this is the exact opposite of what is needed to help us reduce our dependence on oil is: Higher prices reduce consumption. Lower prices (now) encourages higher demand, which uses supply and equals higher prices (later). Again, short-term thinking.

Even though I am for market-driven solutions, the exact right thing to do would be to increase gas taxes (reducing demand) and use that money to develop innovative new technologies to support our utilities and oil companies to move toward carbon-reducing solutions. Unfortunately, that is not politically savvy: John Anderson tried that in 1980 and only received 7% of the popular vote. Lesson learned! Which is why we're now in a downward spiral of lower dollar value and upward spiral of oil prices. Don't blame the oil companies, don't blame the politicians, blame ourselves for being fooled. not once, but every election cycle.

Thomas Friedman's article is worth reading: especially if you're interested in how tax policy & energy strategy do (or don't) work.

Senator Lugar's (Indiana) audacious speech

Senator Lugar's speech* reflects the major points in this blog: We, as a nation must have the political courage to think in completely different terms, in how we solve our growing energy problems. (In other news, oil hit $119 a barrel, today.)

Lugar Announces Energy Plan: Senator Lugar's address to the Richard G. Lugar-Purdue University Summit on Energy Security.

Public / Private Partenership example: Moving "green" forward

Michigan is leveraging $1.7 million (state funding) into $50 million (private funding). How it's done.

Corn ethanol is not the answer.

More reasons why corn ethanol is not the right answer to energy independence: [1] High food prices & more pollution & [2] Dramatic increase in water use.

Grid-Guzzling Hybrids?

Business week just ran a brief story about the potential impact of electric cars on the utility grid.
Shift (foreign) oil demand to (domestic) utilities, then watch the price of gas drop to $1 a gallon... while keeping our U.S. dollars at home. In parallel, focusing on high-density energy storage to increase wind-farm (and even wave-energy) capacity utilization may well match the demand increase - in a renewable fashion.

Californians' power bills to bankroll climate institute

This is (potentially) a great concept. It could be accelerated by focusing on significant power-generation improvements (i.e., help utilities profit from investing in new technologies that have a secondary effect of reducing carbon release). Who knows, maybe they'd even provide matching funds if they were allowed to keep more of the profits. However, it may just be a process to raise money for more research, without the necessary focus on commercialization. Time will tell.

Oil Company Exploring More Utility Power Production?

Contrary to Exxon's perspective, Christophe de Margerie (CEO of Europe's largest oil company, Total) concludes that demand for oil is outstripping supply (the root cause of price increases, not "greedy oil execs").

"Perhaps the best measure of Mr de Margerie's gloomy outlook for the oil industry is his eagerness to get Total into nuclear power." Why would an oil exec look to do this?"

Maybe... electric vehicles?

History repeats itself (1973=> 2008)

Once again, some members of Congress seem to be more interested in appearing to do something (to get reelected) than actually solving the energy problem. They got air-time to grill oil execs. Here we go again. We are headed down the exact same path we did after 1973... which absolutely did not solve the problem!

Due to the OPEC-led oil-shock of 1973, Congress applied a "windfall profits tax" in 1980. This reduced oil companies ability to find better ways to produce oil. Effect? Oil companies can't pump more oil due to demand increases generated by tremendous growth in China & India. Prices went up. This unintended consequence is the exact opposite of what Congress wanted: lower prices. Government at work.

And on the other side, the U.S. government is providing $10 to $20 billion in subsidies to these very same companies. Money that could be used for finding renewable, low-carbon solutions - other than inflation-inducing ethanol (which also requires burning to work). Government at work.

Bottom line: If we just let the market-forces take care of itself, stop subsidizing oil companies and focus on real solutions instead of grand-standing for political purposes, perhaps we could let the market sort itself out. Gasoline at $10 a gallon would be incentive enough for profit-minded entrepreneurs and investors to solve the problem. What's next, price controls? This would be yet another folly - that would further delay Solving Our Energy Problems.

As Albert Einstein said - “We cannot solve our significant problems from the same level of thinking we were at when we created these problems.” This much is clear.

Battery Technologies: An update

"Between now and 2015, the worldwide market for hybrid-vehicle batteries will more than triple, to $2.3 billion. Lithium-ion batteries, the first of which should appear in hybrid cars in 2009, could make up as much as half of that." Brief article about the current state of affairs.

Renewable grid energy; Electric cars. Next?

Some not-so-small companies are looking to help us wean ourselves off oil with electric cars. Time to support utilities - and help them meet Renewable Portfolio Standards?

General Motors, Ford Motors, Volvo, Honda, Tesla Motors, AFS Trinity, Smith Electric Vehicles, Global Electric Motorcars, Zap!, HST Automotive, Brammo, Enertia (motorcycles), Green Lite Motors, and of course - Do it Yourself.

Hope

House passes renewable energy bill:

- Summary of voting
- Summary of bill
- Full bill

What can small business do to save cash & energy?

A couple of great articles in two magazines: [1] Pitney Bowes' Priority Magazine about what some businesses are doing to do good and well. [2] APICS's Magazine discusses the Green Imperative (my words) and provides some examples.

And an upcoming virtual expo on Green Technology for businesses.

This is what I call "Green (behavior) = Green ($s)".

Green Building Initiative